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Fertilizer prices remain volatile, but these two producers have bright long-term outlooks. That’s because the growing global population is increasing food demand. Without fertilizer, the world would need 50% more farmland to meet this need....

INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC. $86 (New York symbol IFF; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 81.5 million; Market cap: $7.0 billion; Priceto- sales ratio: 2.5; Dividend yield: 1.8%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.iff.com) makes over 36,000 unique compounds that improve the taste of foods and the smell of a wide variety of consumer products. Major clients include Procter & Gamble, Nestle, Kraft, Unilever and General Mills.

The company has two divisions: Flavors, which makes ingredients for soups, soft drinks and gum; and Fragrances, which produces compounds for soaps, detergents and air fresheners. Each business supplies roughly half of IFF’s sales and earnings.


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INTEL CORP. $25 (Nasdaq symbol INTC; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 5.0 billion; Market cap: $125.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.4; Dividend yield: 3.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.intel.com) is selling its Intel Media business, which is developing a service calle...

BHP BILLITON LTD. ADRs $64 (New York symbol BHP; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; ADRs outstanding: 2.7 billion; Market cap: $172.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.6; Dividend yield: 3.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.bhpbilliton.com) produced a record 97.8 million tonnes of iron ore in the six months ended December 31, 2013, up 19.3% from a year earlier. That’s mainly due to the start-up of its 85%-owned Jimblebar mine in Western Australia. BHP still expects to produce 192 million tonnes of iron ore for its full 2014 fiscal year.

The company also produced more metallurgical coal (up 21.9%), alumina (up 8.4%) and copper (up 6.2%). As well, new onshore oil wells in the U.S. pushed up its oil output by 6.3%. However, natural gas production fell 6.7% as BHP shifts its focus to its more profitable oil operations.

BHP Billiton is a buy....

FEDEX CORP. $132 (New York symbol FDX; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 312.2 million; Market cap: $41.2 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.0; Dividend yield: 0.5%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.fedex.com) plans to sell $2 billion worth of new long-term notes. The delivery firm will use the cash to buy back 11.4 million of its common shares, or 4% of the total outstanding, at current market prices. It aims to complete these purchases by May 31, 2014.

Share buybacks raise earnings per share and other per-share calculations and give the remaining shareholders a larger stake in the company.

The notes will raise the company’s long-term debt to around $4.7 billion. That’s still a low 11% of its market cap. FedEx also held cash of $3.9 billion, or $12.37 a share, as of November 30, 2013.
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THE BOEING CO. $130 (New York symbol BA; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 751.5 million; Market cap: $97.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.2; Dividend yield: 2.3%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.boeing.com) delivered a record 648 passenger jets in 2013, beating its earlier forecast of 645. The 2013 figure is also 7.8% higher than the 601 planes the company delivered in 2012.

In addition, Boeing won orders for 1,531 commercial planes in 2013 (or 1,355 after cancellations). It ended the year with a record backlog of 5,080 aircraft orders.

Boeing is a buy.
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MCKESSON CORP. $173 (New York symbol MCK; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 229.7 million; Market cap: $39.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.3; Dividend yield: 0.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.mckesson- .com) has agreed to buy shares of Celesio AG, a German firm that distributes prescription drugs in Europe and Brazil, from its two largest investors. The move will give McKesson about 75% of Celesio. It then plans to buy the remaining 25%.

Buying all of Celesio will cost $8.4 billion, including its debt. However, the purchase should add $1.00 to $1.20 a share to McKesson’s annual earnings; it earned $6.33 a share in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2013.

McKesson is a buy....

NEWMONT MINING CORP. $25 (New York symbol NEM; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 493.1 million; Market cap: $12.3 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.4; Dividend yield: 3.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.newmont.com) owns 48.5% of the Batu Hijau copper/gold mine in Indonesia, which supplies 7% of its revenue.

The Indonesian government wants miners to process more ore in the country, so it recently announced a ban on mineral exports. Batu Hijau can still export its ore until 2016, but it will face a new export tax in the meantime. Newmont will challenge these changes, because its contract exempts it from extra taxes and fees.

Newmont is still a hold....

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP. $176 (New York symbol IBM, Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 1.1 billion; Market cap: $193.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.0; Dividend yield: 2.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.ibm.com) is selling its low-end server operations to China’s Lenovo Group, the same company that acquired IBM’s personal computer division in 2005. IBM will hang on to its more profitable mainframe computer business.

Because Lenovo is a Chinese company, the deal could run into trouble on national security grounds. But if regulators approve, IBM will receive $2 billion in cash and $300 million in Lenovo shares. The cash would help the company expand in areas with greater potential, including cloud computing and analytics services, which help businesses analyze large amounts of data and improve their efficiency.

IBM is a buy....

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC. $42 (Nasdaq symbol TXN; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 1.1 billion; Market cap: $46.2 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 4.0; Dividend yield: 2.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.ti.com) gets 65% of its revenue from analog chips, which convert inputs like touch, sound and pressure into electronic signals. Manufacturers use these chips in a variety of products, including cars, medical devices and appliances.

The company gets a further 20% of its revenue by making processor chips, which perform mathematical calculations. Many clients supply their own software for these chips. That lets Texas Instruments form long-term relationships with these users, as it helps them carry their software over when they upgrade.

The remaining 15% of revenue comes from other chips, handheld calculators and licensing. In the quarter ended December 31, 2013, the company’s earnings jumped 93.6%, to $511 million from $264 million a year earlier. Earnings per share rose 100.0%, to $0.46 from $0.23, on fewer shares outstanding. Texas Instruments recently quit making chips for mobile devices and closed plants as a result. Without closure-related costs, it earned $0.49 a share in the latest quarter.
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CISCO SYSTEMS INC. $22 (Nasdaq symbol CSCO; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 5.4 billion; Market cap: $118.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.4; Dividend yield 3.1%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.cisco.com) makes hardware and software that links and manages computer networks. Its hardware includes routers, local area network (LAN) and asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) switches, and server computers. Cisco mainly sells this gear to large businesses and governments.

In its 2014 first quarter, which ended October 26, 2013, Cisco’s earnings rose 11.6%, to $2.9 billion from $2.6 billion a year earlier. Per-share earnings gained 10.4%, to $0.53 from $0.48, because it had more shares outstanding.

Revenue rose just 1.8%, to $12.1 billion from $11.9 billion. Many businesses are holding off on router purchases as they wait for Cisco to launch new models. However, demand for data centre and wireless networking equipment remains steady. As well, revenue from technical support and other services (22% of the total) rose 4.2%.
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MICROSOFT CORP. $37 (Nasdaq symbol MSFT; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 8.3 billion; Market cap: $307.1 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.7; Dividend yield: 3.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.microsoft.com) gets most of its revenue from Windows, the software that powers over 90% of the world’s computers, and its Office suite of business programs.

More users are upgrading their systems because Microsoft will soon stop supporting Windows XP, which it launched in 2001. At the same time, demand for its server software and cloud computing services is rising. In addition, the company launched new versions of its Xbox game console and Surface tablet before the Christmas shopping season.

These strengths lifted Microsoft’s revenue by 14.3% in its fiscal 2014 second quarter (which ended December 31, 2013), to $24.5 billion from $21.5 billion a year earlier. Earnings gained 2.8%, to $6.6 billion, or $0.78 a share, from $6.4 billion or $0.76.
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APPLE INC. $501 (Nasdaq symbol AAPL; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 892.4 million; Market cap: $447.1 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.8; Dividend yield: 2.4%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.apple.com) continues to profit from its hugely popular mobile devices: the iPhone smartphone and the iPad tablet computer. These products account for 75% of its sales. The remaining 25% comes from its Mac computers, iPod music players and revenue from its iTunes online store.

In its 2014 first quarter, which ended December 28, 2013, Apple’s sales rose 5.7%, to $57.6 billion from $54.5 billion a year earlier. The company sold a record 51.0 million iPhones in the latest quarter, up 6.8%. iPad sales gained 13.9%, to a record 26.0 million units. Apple also sold 19.1% more Mac computers, but iPod sales fell 52.3% as users continue to upgrade to iPhones.

However, Apple is paying more for components after it upgraded its iPhones and iPads in 2013. As a result, its earnings were unchanged at $13.1 billion. Earnings per share rose 5.0%, to $14.50 from $13.81, on fewer shares outstanding.
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T. ROWE PRICE GROUP INC. $79 (Nasdaq symbol TROW; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 260.9 million; Market cap: $20.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 6.4; Dividend yield: 1.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.troweprice- .com) earned $284.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2013, up 23.9% from $229.9 million a year earlier. Due to more shares outstanding, earnings per share rose 20.5%, to $1.06 from $0.88.

Improving stock markets continue to spur demand for its mutual funds. Revenue rose 18.1%, to $929.8 million from $787.3 million.

T. Rowe Price is a buy....

VISA INC. $217 (New York symbol V; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 636.6 million; Market cap: $138.1 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 12.3; Dividend yield: 0.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.visa.com) is gaining from rising online shopping and higher credit and debit card use, particularly overseas. The company also has no credit risk.

Moreover, Visa stands to benefit from the recent theft of credit card data from Target and Neiman Marcus. These incidents could spur new regulations that would force retailers to install chip-based card readers, which are more secure than magnetic-swipe devices and would cut down on fraud. Retailers would probably have to pay for these upgrades, not Visa.

Visa is a buy....

MCDONALD’S CORP. $93 (New York symbol MCD; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 995.0 million; Market cap: $92.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.4; Dividend yield: 3.5%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.mcdonalds.com) stands to rebound strongly from a slow 2013 as it builds more outlets in Asia, Africa and other fast-growing regions. Healthier menu items and premium coffees are also helping it attract new customers. However, a higher minimum wage in the U.S. would hurt its profits.

McDonald’s is a buy.

GOOGLE INC. $1,107 (Nasdaq symbol GOOG; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 334.1 million; Market cap: $369.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 6.4; No dividends paid; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.google.com) continues to profit from the shift to online advertising, even though it is earning less per ad. That’s because advertisers are paying less for ads on mobile devices, since they are more difficult to see on smaller screens.

However, Google’s Android software powers 80% of all mobile devices. That’s driving more traffic to its web sites. Google is also selling ads in bundles that cover multiple devices.

Google is a buy.
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CONAGRA FOODS INC. $32 (New York symbol CAG; Income Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 420.4 million; Market cap: $13.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.8; Dividend yield: 3.1%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.- conagrafoods.com) is facing strong competition from other processed food makers, which has slowed its earnings growth. Even so, the stock has held up well since we made it our #1 buy for 2013.

The company continues to cut costs— including through a new flour-milling joint venture— after last year’s purchase of private-label food maker Ralcorp. These savings will help offset the loss of a big corporate customer. Moreover, ConAgra trades at a moderate 13.6 times its projected fiscal 2014 earnings of $2.35 a share. The stock yields a high 3.1%.

ConAgra is a buy.
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TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORP. $79 (New York symbol TUP; Conservative Growth and Income Portfolios, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 50.7 million; Market cap: $4.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.7; Dividend yield: 3.4%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.tupperwarebrands.com) is up 68.1% since we named it as our #1 buy for 2011.

The company continues to benefit from strong demand for its plastic food containers and beauty products in emerging markets such as Asia and South America, which now supply 45% of its total sales. That’s helping it offset weaker sales in North America and Europe.

Tupperware’s sales rose 3.4% in 2013, to $2.7 billion from $2.6 billion in 2012. If you disregard the negative impact of foreign exchange rates, sales rose 6%. Excluding costs related to plant closures and other unusual items, earnings gained 2.5%, to $288.3 million from $281.4 million. Due to fewer shares outstanding, earnings per share rose 8.8%, to $5.43 from $4.99.
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NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC. $30 (New York symbol NWL; Aggressive Growth and Income Portfolios, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 287.2 million; Market cap: $8.6 billion; Priceto- sales ratio: 1.5; Dividend yield: 2.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.newellrubbermaid.com) makes plastic storage bins, tools, window blinds, pens and many other household goods.

The company has five divisions: Writing makes pens and markers (30% of sales, 46% of earnings); Home Solutions makes foodstorage and cooking products (28%, 24%); Tools makes hand and power tools and accessories (14%, 8%); Commercial Products makes cleaning supplies (14%, 11%); and Baby & Parenting makes high chairs, car seats and other goods for infants (14%, 11%).

Newell owns some the top brands in these markets, including Sharpie markers, Parker and Paper Mate pens, Calphalon cookware, Levolor blinds, Irwin tools and Graco car seats and strollers.
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H&R REIT (Toronto symbol HR.UN; www.hr-reit.com) owns stakes in 42 office buildings, 112 industrial properties and 164 shopping malls across Canada. The trust has a 98.2% occupancy rate....

INTACT FINANCIAL CORP. (Toronto symbol IFC; www.intactfc.com) is Canada’s largest provider of property and casualty insurance, based on premiums. Its brands include Intact Insurance, Canada BrokerLink, belairdirect and Grey Power....

Pat McKeough responds to many requests from members of his Inner Circle for specific advice on stocks to buy as well as questions on investment strategy and the economy. Every week, his comments and recommendations on the most intriguing questions of the past week go out to all Inner Circle members. And each week, we offer you one of the highlights from these Q&A sessions. While we reserve our buy-hold-sell advice for Inner Circle members, these excerpts provide a great deal of information and analysis on stocks we’ve covered for members of Pat’s Inner Circle....

New technology has increased oil production from North American shale rock formations. Even so, oil prices have held up due to the improving global economy and lower output from conventional wells....

At first glance, managing an investment portfolio may resemble prize fighting, with an investor bobbing and weaving to get the upper hand on the market. But for successful investors, good portfolio management is much more like a multi-dimensional tightrope act. And you must be able to perform these 4 balancing acts to succeed.