commodity

Pat McKeough responds to many personal questions on stocks and other investment topics from the members of his Inner Circle. Every week, his comments and recommendations on a selection of the most intriguing questions of the past week go out to all Inner Circle members. And every Friday, we offer you one of the highlights from these Q&A sessions. This week, an Inner Circle member asked Pat about one of Canada’s major mining stocks. Labrador Iron Ore Royalty has quietly built a position as a world leader in iron ore. Now it faces several challenges in today’s volatile commodity markets....

CONAGRA FOODS INC. $25 (New York symbol CAG; Income Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 414.5 million; Market cap: $10.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.8; Dividend yield: 3.8%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.conagrafoods.com) makes a wide variety of packaged foods, including Chef Boyardee canned pasta, Hunt’s tomato sauce, Peter Pan peanut butter and Orville Redenbacher popcorn. The company gets 65% of its sales from consumers. Businesses, such as restaurants, account for the remaining 35%. The company’s sales fell 3.5%, from $12.0 billion in 2007 to $11.6 billion in 2008. That’s because ConAgra sold its commodity trading operations. Sales rebounded to $12.7 billion in 2009, but fell 5.1%, to $12.1 billion, in 2010. Sales rose to $12.3 billion in 2011, thanks to acquisitions and price increases....

MOSAID TECHNOLOGIES INC., $45.95, symbol MSD on Toronto, has agreed to a friendly, $46.00-a-share, all-cash takeover offer from U.S.-based private-equity firm Sterling Partners. Mosaid mainly licenses computer chip and telecommunications technology, including patents for technology used in smartphones and laptops. The Sterling Partners bid counters last week’s $42-a-share hostile offer from Wi-LAN. Prior to that, Wi-LAN had offered $38 a share....

These two well-established food makers are using different strategies to increase their sales and profits. Heinz continues to expand overseas, while ConAgra prefers to focus on its domestic business. Both companies continue to cut costs and improve their efficiency. Both strategies should help Heinz and ConAgra spur their longterm growth, and give them lots of room to keep raising their dividends. As well, both continue to trade at attractive multiples to earnings....

We place a lot of importance on investment quality. We assign one of our six TSINetwork Investment Quality Ratings to every stock we recommend. We base these six ratings on a total of nine key factors. Many of the factors are widely recognized as investments quality hallmarks, such as a long-term record of earnings and a long-term record of dividends. Others are less widely followed, such as a company’s ability to profit from secular trends. Secular trends go far beyond mere business cycles. They reflect ongoing changes in the world. One key secular trend today is the fact that vast numbers of workers in emerging markets are pole-vaulting into the middle class. This opens up great opportunities for many of our recommendations in the consumer area, such as Tupperware, Kraft and many others. These companies can take the products and procedures they developed and perfected in the west, and put them to work in China, India and other emerging markets, with little additional development cost. Fertilizer companies can also profit from this secular trend. When poor people begin making more money, one of the first things they do is improve their diet. They want more and better food, and more meat in particular. This pattern will fuel growth in the fertilizer business for years if not decades to come....

All resource stocks are subject to the risk that comes with the rise and fall of commodity prices. But, depending on where they do business, some also face a second challenge: political risk. Among Canadian mining stocks, Sherritt International (Toronto symbol S) is prominently identified with political risk due to its extensive involvement in Cuba. The company’s Cuban operations are profitable, but it is expanding into other countries to lessen that risk. Sherritt is a diversified natural resource company that produces nickel, cobalt, thermal coal, oil and gas. It also manages 376 megawatts of power-generation capacity in Cuba....

When investors develop and act on strong investment views—on subjects such as the outlook for oil prices, say, or gold prices, or interest rates—they generally lose money overall. That’s because strong views on subjects like these tend to distort your investment decisions.

Stock market advice: Relying on predictions can tempt you to take on too much risk

For instance, if you know (or think you know) that oil is sure to rise in the next six months or a year, say, then you are sure to invest more heavily in oil stocks than you would if you took a less extreme—that is, more balanced—view of the situation. You will also tend to invest in riskier oil stocks, rather than proven producers....

On Monday, gold closed at a new record high of $1,898.10 U.S. an ounce. Prices have since pulled back to around $1,861.30 U.S., but that’s

SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL $5.64 (Toronto symbol S; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (1-800-704-6698; www.sherritt.com; Shares outstanding: 296.2 million; Market cap: $1.6 billion; Dividend yield: 2.7%) is a diversified natural-resource company that produces nickel, cobalt, thermal coal, oil and gas. It also manages 376 megawatts of power-generation capacity in Cuba. Sherritt is a major nickel producer, with operations in Cuba and Canada. It is also close to finishing a mine at its 40%-owned Ambatovy project on the island nation of Madagascar, off Africa’s east coast. As well, Sherritt produces oil and gas in Cuba, Spain and Pakistan. It is also Canada’s largest thermal coal producer. In the three months ended June 30, 2011, Sherritt’s revenue rose 23.2%, to $500.6 million from $406.3 million. Excluding one-time items, earnings per share rose 5.3%, to $0.20 from $0.19. Higher nickel sales, as well as higher prices for coal and oil, were the main reasons for the improved results. Cash flow per share rose 13.6%, to $0.50 from $0.44....

Slowing economic growth and concerns about high U.S. and European debt continue to dampen prices for commodities, like oil, coal and copper. However, rising demand from fast-growing regions, such as Asia and Latin America, should help support resource prices over the long term. The best way to protect the Resources part of your portfolio from volatile commodity prices is with high-quality companies, such as these three. They also trade at attractive multiples to earnings and cash flow. CENOVUS ENERGY INC. $37 (Toronto symbol CVE; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 754.1 million; Market cap: $27.9 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.8; Dividend yield: 2.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; www.cenovus.com) operates three oil-sands properties in Alberta and one in Saskatchewan. Cenovus ships the heavy bitumen from these projects to refineries in Illinois and Texas. ConocoPhillips (New York symbol COP) owns 50% of these refineries, as well as 50% of Cenovus’ two main oil-sands projects. Cenovus also owns conventional oil and natural gas properties....