oil and gas

Five years ago, the old EnCana Corp. split itself into two new firms: the new Encana, which focuses on natural gas, and Cenovus Energy, which owns oil sands properties and refineries. Lower gas prices have cut Encana’s share price by 30% since the split. Due to the recent drop in oil prices, Cenovus’s stock has gained about 9% in the last five years. Energy prices could fall further, as new production techniques, particularly hydraulic fracturing (or fracking) and horizontal drilling, add to supplies. However, a colder-thannormal winter would boost oil and gas demand for heating....

Your surest route to investment success is to follow our three-pronged Successful Investor approach:

1. Invest mainly in well-established, high-quality companies;
2. Spread your money out across most if not all of the five main economic sectors;
3. Downplay or avoid stocks in the broker/media limelight.

In the long run, our three-part system will provide much better results than basing investment decisions on market opinions or predictions.

Of course, I still form opinions on which way the market and individual stocks are likely to move in coming months and years. Some of these opinions fall in the category of predictions—others are more like guesses.

From time to time I share these opinions with investors. Sometimes they turn out surprisingly accurate—other times, not so much. This has become a popular part of our service, so we highlight it under the heading “Guesses, Opinions & Predictions”.

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APACHE CORP. $72 (New York symbol APA; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 376.8 million; Market cap: $27.1 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.9; Dividend yield: 1.4%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.apachecorp.com) is selling some of its less important oil and gas properties in Texas and Oklahoma.

It will receive $1.4 billion when it completes the sale by the end of 2014. To put that in context, Apache earned $528 million, or $1.38 a share, in the three months ended September 30, 2014.

The company will probably invest the cash in its more promising shale oil properties in the U.S. Apache is a hold.

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RUSSEL METALS INC., $31.50, symbol RUS on Toronto, reported strong quarterly results this week. In the three months ended September 30, 2014, Russel’s revenue rose 30.4%, to $1.04 billion from $796.8 million a year earlier. The company’s metal-services business raised its prices in response to higher demand, increasing its revenue by 14% in the latest quarter. The energy products division, which supplies pipes for oil and gas exploration and development, saw its revenue jump 41%....

TRANSCANADA CORP., $56.05, Toronto symbol TRP, rose this week in response to the U.S. mid-term elections, which gave the Republican Party control of the Senate. That makes it more likely that the U.S. government will approve the company’s Keystone XL pipeline, which would pump crude from Alberta’s oil sands to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Due to various delays, the company now expects Keystone XL to cost $8.0 billion U.S., up 48.1% from its 2008 estimate of $5.4 billion U.S. To date, it has spent $2.4 billion U.S. on this project. TransCanada also plans to spend $2.7 billion to expand its Nova pipeline network in Western Canada to handle rising shale gas production in Alberta and B.C. In addition, it will invest $475 million to upgrade its Ontario gas pipelines. The company expects to complete these projects in 2016 and 2017....

PENGROWTH ENERGY $4.36 (Toronto symbol PGF; Shares outstanding: 528.1 million; Market cap: $2.2 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 11.0%; www.pengrowth.com) produces oil and natural gas in Western Canada and off the Nova Scotia coast. Gas accounts for 46% of its production; the other 54% is oil. In the three months ended September 30, 2014, Pengrowth produced 72,472 barrels a day (including gas), down 13.0% from 83,275 barrels a year earlier. That’s mainly because it sold several less important oil and gas properties in Western Canada. Pengrowth is investing the proceeds from these sales in more promising projects, like its Lindbergh oil sands development in Alberta’s Cold Lake region. Lindbergh should start up in early 2015 and produce 12,500 barrels a day. Future phases will raise the project’s daily output to 50,000 barrels....

ENCANA CORP. $21.00 (Toronto symbol ECA; Shares outstanding: 741.0 million; Market cap: $15.6 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 1.4%; www.encana.com) continues to sell less important natural gas properties as it shifts toward long-lasting projects that mainly produce oil and natural gas liquids, such as butane and propane. The company recently agreed to sell most of its natural gas properties in central Alberta’s Clearwater region for $605 million (Canadian). That’s equal to 83% of its second-quarter cash flow of $656 million U.S., or $0.89 U.S. a share. The company expects to complete the sale in the first quarter of 2015. The cash will help Encana pay for Texas-based oil producer Athlon Energy (New York symbol ATHL), which it recently agreed to buy for $7.1 billion U.S., including Athlon’s $1.15 billion U.S. of debt. Encana should complete this purchase by the end of 2014....

Every Thursday we bring you our best U.S. stock picks. You get our specific recommendation on the stocks we profile, with a full explanation of how we arrived at our opinion. You will read about stocks making moves you should know about, most often from coverage in our newsletter on U.S. investing, Wall Street Stock Forecaster. Today’s stock is covered in our advisory on more aggressive investing, Stock Pickers Digest.

DEVON ENERGY CORP. (New York symbol DVN; www.dvn.com) is one of the largest U.S.-based oil and natural gas explorers and producers. Its production mix is 48% gas and 52% oil.

In 2011, Devon sold all of its international and Gulf of Mexico properties, which it saw as risky and expensive to develop.

The company narrowed its focus even further with the July 2014 sale of some of its properties to Linn Energy for $2.3 billion. The sale included Devon’s holdings in the Rockies, the onshore Gulf Coast and the Mid-Continent region (which includes Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas).

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A: CanElson Drilling, $5.61, symbol CDI on Toronto (Shares outstanding: 92.7 million; Market cap: $483.8 million; www.canelsondrilling.com), mainly operates drilling rigs in Western Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. The company operates these rigs under contract to oil and gas exploration and development firms. It currently has 46 rigs in operation: 28 in Canada, 12 in Texas’s Permian Basin and six in the Williston Basin (including the North Dakota Bakken area and part of Montana). CanElson also operates four rigs in Mexico through its 50%-owned joint venture, Diavaz CanElson de Mexico S.A. de C.V. In the three months ended June 30, 2014, CanElson’s revenue jumped 65.1%, to $61.9 million from $37.5 million a year earlier. Cash flow per share gained 80.0%, to $0.18 from $0.10....

WAJAX CORP. $35.46 (Toronto symbol WJX; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (905-212-3300; www.wajax.ca; Shares outstanding:16.8 million; Market cap: $595.0 million; Dividend yield: 6.8%) sells and services cranes, forklifts and other heavy equipment. It also provides related parts (such as bearings, motors, hoses and fittings) and power systems (including diesel engines and transmissions).

The company’s customers are in the natural resource, construction, manufacturing and transportation industries.

In the three months ended September 30, 2014, Wajax’s revenue rose 6.2%, to $359.5 million from $338.5 million a year earlier. All of its segments reported higher sales, including mining and forestry.

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