oil prices

TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORP. $62 (New York symbol TUP; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 57.4 million; Market cap: $3.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.3; Dividend yield: 1.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.tupperwarebrands.com) was our Stock of the Year for 2011.

Like IBM, Tupperware continues to see strong demand for its products, particularly in fast-growing countries like Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey. These markets now supply 63% of the company’s sales.

Also like IBM, Tupperware continues to aggressively repurchase its shares. Buybacks raise earnings per share and other per-share calculations, and give the remaining shareholders a larger stake in the company.

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MART RESOURCES $0.76 (Toronto symbol MMT; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (403-270-1841; www.martresources.com; Shares outstanding: 340.3 million; Market cap: $258.6 million; No dividends paid) trades at a low multiple to cash flow. That reflects investor concern about unstable Nigeria. Right now, Mart is producing oil from its 50%-held Umusadege field in southern Nigeria. In the three months ended September 30, 2011, Mart’s revenue jumped 237.2%, to $46.8 million from $13.9 million a year earlier. Cash flow per share rose sharply, to $0.125 from $0.028. Mart’s production rose 126.5%, to 446,981 barrels, and oil prices rose....

BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY $13.24 (Toronto symbol BIR; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (403-261-6401; www.birchcliffenergy.com; Units outstanding: 131.4 million; Market cap: $1.7 billion; No dividends paid) develops, produces and explores for oil and natural gas, mainly in the Peace River Arch area near the Alberta/B.C. border. About 75% of Birchcliff’s production is natural gas. The remaining 25% is oil. In the three months ended September 30, 2011, Birchcliff’s production jumped 34.6%, to 17,648 barrels of oil equivalent per day (including natural gas) from 13,109 barrels a year earlier. Cash flow per share rose 50.0%, to $0.27 from $0.18. The production increase and higher oil prices were the main reasons for the gain....

Here’s the text of the quarterly letter I sent to our Portfolio Management clients in mid-November: “Our investment approach relies on three key rules: 1. Invest mainly in well-established companies. These companies have an above-average chance of surviving an economic or market downturn, and thriving again when conditions improve....

EUROPEAN GOLDFIELDS, $12.86, symbol EGU on Toronto, is up almost 29% this week. The rise came after the company confirmed that an unnamed potential buyer has approached it about a takeover offer. Eldorado Gold, symbol ELD on Toronto, is rumoured to be the interested party. European Goldfields’ Skouries and Olympias gold projects in Greece and its Certej project in Romania would be good fits for Eldorado, which already has mines in Greece and Turkey. We’ve said for some time that European Goldfields could become a takeover target as its new mines move toward production. That’s even more of a possibility now, after its recent financing deal with Qatar Holdings LLC, a division of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, to develop its mines....

BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY $13.24 (Toronto symbol BIR; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (403-261-6401; www.birchcliffenergy.com; Units outstanding: 131.4 million; Market cap: $1.7 billion; No dividends paid) develops, produces and explores for oil and natural gas, mainly in the Peace River Arch area near the Alberta/B.C. border. About 75% of Birchcliff’s production is natural gas. The remaining 25% is oil.

In the three months ended September 30, 2011, Birchcliff’s production jumped 34.6%, to 17,648 barrels of oil equivalent per day (including natural gas) from 13,109 barrels a year earlier.

Cash flow per share rose 50.0%, to $0.27 from $0.18. The production increase and higher oil prices were the main reasons for the gain.

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MART RESOURCES $0.76 (Toronto symbol MMT; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (403-270-1841; www.martresources.com; Shares outstanding: 340.3 million; Market cap: $258.6 million; No dividends paid) trades at a low multiple to cash flow. That reflects investor concern about unstable Nigeria.

Right now, Mart is producing oil from its 50%-held Umusadege field in southern Nigeria.

In the three months ended September 30, 2011, Mart’s revenue jumped 237.2%, to $46.8 million from $13.9 million a year earlier. Cash flow per share rose sharply, to $0.125 from $0.028. Mart’s production rose 126.5%, to 446,981 barrels, and oil prices rose.

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ROYAL BANK OF CANADA $50 (www.rbc.com) reported record earnings for fiscal 2011 due to strong growth at its Canadian banking, wealth management and insurance divisions. That’s helping it offset slower growth at its securities-trading operations. In the year ended October 31, 2011, earnings per share rose 16.5%, to $4.45 from $3.82 in 2010. As well, loan-loss provisions fell 21.4%, as more people are repaying their loans on time. Buy. CAE INC. $10 (www.cae.com) continues to benefit as airlines upgrade their fleets. It recently received an order from Emirates Airlines for two flight simulators. The $34-million value of this contract is equal to 2% of CAE’s annual revenue of $1.7 billion. Including these new orders, CAE has sold 21 flight simulators in its 2012 fiscal year, which ends March 31, 2012. It sold 29 simulators in fiscal 2011, up from 20 in 2010. Best Buy. CENOVUS ENERGY INC. $34 (www.cenovus.com) reported that its cash flow per share rose 54.4% in the third quarter of 2011, to $1.05 from $0.68 a year earlier. A 9.6% increase in oil prices was the main reason for the gain. The stock trades at 8.0 times Cenovus’s forecast 2011 cash flow of $4.27 a share. That’s a reasonable multiple in light of its high-quality reserves. Buy.

SeaDrill Ltd. is a leading offshore drilling company. Norway-based SeaDrill has a fleet of 60 drilling rigs that can operate in shallow to very deep water.

CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CORP. $44.35 (Toronto symbol CPG; Shares outstanding: 277.9 million; Market cap: $12.3 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend yield: 6.2%; www.crescentpointenergy.com) produces oil and natural gas in western Canada. Its production is weighted 90% toward oil and 10% to gas. The company continues to focus on its Bakken light-oil development in southeastern Saskatchewan. For all of 2011, Crescent Point will likely spend at least $1.1 billion on exploration at Bakken. That should rise even higher in 2012. In the three months ended September 30, 2011, Crescent Point’s cash flow per share rose 19.8%, to $1.09 from $0.91....