The ins and outs of … sector rotation strategies

Article Excerpt

So-called “sector rotators” try to predict which sectors will outperform other sectors in the coming months. But trying to pick winning sectors — and staying out of other sectors — seldom works over long periods. Sector rotation is an aggressive investing style that starts by taking a “top down” approach. Sector rotators try to figure out “what happens next” in the economy. They then invest heavily in stocks from those sectors. As a strategy, sector rotation can work in any one year, say. However, for any investor, it’s difficult if not impossible to produce consistent longer-term returns. Here are 2 reasons why: You need to guess right three times to profit in sector rotation: You have to pick the top sectors, pick the stocks that will rise within those sectors, and then sell before the sector stumbles. It’s virtually impossible to consistently succeed at all three over long periods. Sector rotation can overweight you in the worst-performing sectors: Investor trying to pick sectors often…