Patient But Optimistic

Article Excerpt

In our July 27 Hotline, I said the market could ultimately knock 5% to as much as 15% off the market indexes. But I felt losses would be temporary and markets would go on to new highs in 2008. That view is unchanged. However, stocks could stay volatile over the next few months, while remaining within a range between the peak prices of July and the lows of August. When the market finally does launch a sustained rise, it could gain 10% to 20% by mid-2009. But it may go through a series of wild fluctuations before launching that sustained rise. While waiting for that rise to start, you should refuse to let yourself get spooked by big one-day downturns, like the one-day, 300-point drop in the Dow Industrials in October. Be equally unfazed by sudden price jumps which may quickly reverse. One-day moves are always subject to random influences. That’s especially so now that problems with subprime mortgages and asset-backed commercial paper have…