In addition, Pat thinks then beginner investors should cultivate two important qualities: a healthy sense of skepticism and patience.
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Investors should approach all investments with a healthy sense of skepticism. This can help keep you out of fraudulent stocks that masquerade as high-quality stocks. It will also keep you out of legally operated, but poorly managed, companies that promise more than they can possibly deliver.
If you are a new investor, you should also realize that losing patience can cause you to sell your best choices right before a big rise. All too often, investors buy a promising stock just as it enters a period of price stagnation. Even the best-performing stocks run into these unpredictable phases from time to time. They move mainly sideways in a wide range for months or years before their next big rise begins. (Stock brokers often refer to these stocks as “dead money.”)
If you lack patience, you run a big risk of selling your best choices in the midst of one of these phases, prior to the next big move upward. If you lose patience and sell, you are particularly likely to do so in the low end of the trading range, when stock prices have weakened and confidence in the stock has waned.
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Recently, one reader wondered, “...what is a good entry point when purchasing a stock or an ETF? I always pay too much then the stock drops like Home Capital Group dropped from the $50 range to $30 range as soon as I bought it. Setting a limit price is difficult— does one choose a 50-day moving average, or…?”
Soon after, another reader addressed her question. He suggested that she look further into moving averages, and shared some of his views on how to profit from them.
Many investors make buy and sell decisions with the help of moving averages and other forms of technical analysis. I don’t know if this has any consistent impact on their long-term returns—for better or worse. It may be more reliable as a comfort factor than a source of improved profit.
After all, there’s a large random element in stock-price changes, especially in the short term. When you focus on timing buy and sell decisions to improve your investment results, you are trying to come up with a system that can outguess a random factor. But a random factor is something you can’t outguess.
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