In addition, Pat thinks then beginner investors should cultivate two important qualities: a healthy sense of skepticism and patience.
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Investors should approach all investments with a healthy sense of skepticism. This can help keep you out of fraudulent stocks that masquerade as high-quality stocks. It will also keep you out of legally operated, but poorly managed, companies that promise more than they can possibly deliver.
If you are a new investor, you should also realize that losing patience can cause you to sell your best choices right before a big rise. All too often, investors buy a promising stock just as it enters a period of price stagnation. Even the best-performing stocks run into these unpredictable phases from time to time. They move mainly sideways in a wide range for months or years before their next big rise begins. (Stock brokers often refer to these stocks as “dead money.”)
If you lack patience, you run a big risk of selling your best choices in the midst of one of these phases, prior to the next big move upward. If you lose patience and sell, you are particularly likely to do so in the low end of the trading range, when stock prices have weakened and confidence in the stock has waned.
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The first media comment we saw on these results took the view that the stock had gone up enough to offset the improvement in its results. The investment reporter quoted what he called “cynical observers” who said “there was almost no way but up” for the stock. These observers pointed out that McDonald’s had trailed the market by 62 percentage points during a recent three-year period, and that the company had only registered growth in global same-store sales in one quarter out of the past seven.
The statistics in the last sentence are true. But when you analyze a stock, you can come to a wide range of conclusions, depending on the breadth of data you choose, and the beginning and end dates of the periods you look at.
McDonald’s stock price rose from pennies per share (adjusted for stock splits along the way) in the 1970s to a peak of $45 in 1999. Like a lot of high-quality stocks, it suffered in the first few years of the new millennium, and fell to as low as $12 in early 2003. Then it began another monumental rise.
It sailed through the 2008-2009 market downturn with barely a scratch. It hit an all-time high of $67 in August 2008. The following month, the U.S. federal government took control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and Lehman Brothers filed the largest bankruptcy case in U.S. history. McDonald’s fell on this news like the rest of the market. In October 2008, it hit $46, an 18-month low. The stock then resumed its rise and hit $100 in October 2011.
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