Energy Stocks
Resource and commodity stocks in general should make up only a limited portion of your portfolio—say less than 20% for a conservative investor or as much as 30% for an aggressive investor. And as part of that segment, energy stocks could make up, say half of that total. The rest could be fertilizer stocks, mining stocks and so on.
Oil and gas stocks have been below-average performers lately, and many investors are tempted to get out of the industry altogether. However, the energy sector can play a crucial role in your portfolio as a hedge against inflation. The low inflation rates of the past couple of decades deserve some of the blame for the poor performance of the sector. However, energy stocks will likely rebound in years to come as the global economy recovers.
- Invest mainly in well-established companies;
- Spread your money out across most if not all of the five main economic sectors (Manufacturing & Industry; Resources & Commodities; Consumer; Finance; Utilities);
- Downplay or avoid stocks in the broker/media limelight.
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Precision Drilling Corp. (symbol PD on Toronto) provides contract-drilling services to oil and gas producers. Precision owns 355 drilling rigs in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. Precision recently converted from an income trust to a regular corporation. Investors received one common share for each trust unit they held. The change is in response to Ottawa’s new tax on income-trust distributions, which came into effect on January 1, 2011. In 2010, the resource stock’s revenue rose 19.4%, to $1.4 billion from $1.2 billion in 2009. Higher drilling activity was the main reason for the gain. Precision earned $62.1 million, or $0.22 a share. That’s down 61.6% from $161.7 million, or $0.63 a share, in 2009....
Encana Corp. (symbol ECA on Toronto) earned $665 million, or $0.90 a share, in 2010 (all amounts except share price in U.S. dollars). The commodity stock’s latest earnings were down 62.4% from its 2009 earnings of $1.8 billion, or $2.35 per share. Cash flow per share fell to $6.00 from $6.68 in 2009. (Note: The 2009 figures assume that the breakup of the old EnCana Corp. into the new Encana and Cenovus Energy took place at the start of 2009 instead of December 1, 2009.) Depressed natural gas prices were the main reason for lower earnings and cash flow. (Natural gas accounts for more than 95% of the commodity stock’s average daily production.) Encana’s average selling price for gas fell 22.0 % in 2010, to $5.48 per thousand cubic feet from $7.03 in 2009. The price decline offset a 12.0 % rise in the company’s total production....
Canada’s oil sands continue to face strong opposition from environmentalists. That’s mainly because the process of recovering heavy oil from the oil sands produces higher carbon emissions than conventional sources. However, new technology has let oil stocks cut way down on their oil-sands emissions. As well, turmoil in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries highlights the oil sands’ strategic importance to the U.S. and Canada. These factors make it less likely that Ottawa will introduce regulations that would slow oil-sands development.
Cenovus: a diversified producer with a focus on the oil sands
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Archer Daniels Midland Co., New York symbol ADM, processes corn, wheat, soybeans, canola, flaxseed, peanuts, cocoa and other crops into a wide variety of food ingredients, such as flour, oils and sweeteners. It mainly sells its products to firms that make and process food for both humans and animals. The company is also the largest maker of ethanol from corn in the U.S. Ethanol is a gasoline additive that lowers harmful emissions. Archer Daniels has more than 270 plants worldwide. The company is one of the commodity investments we analyze in our Wall Street Stock Forecaster newsletter. In its 2011 second quarter, which ended December 31, 2010, the commodity investment’s revenue rose 31.6% to $20.9 billion from $15.9 billion a year earlier. That beat the consensus revenue forecast of $17.2 billion. Earnings rose 29.1%, to $732.0 million, or $1.14 a share, from $567.0 million, or $0.88 a share. The latest earnings beat the consensus estimate of $0.78 a share....
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, symbol POT on Toronto, produces potash, phosphate and nitrogen for use in fertilizers. Saskatchewan has the world’s largest deposits of potash. The company also partly owns potash-related companies in Jordan, Israel and Chile. Potash Corp. is one of the 5 agricultural investments we analyze in our free report, Commodity Investments: Fertilizer Stocks and Potash Stocks That Will Profit from Rising Food Demand. In 2010, the potash stock’s revenue rose 64.4% to $6.5 billion from $4.0 billion in 2009 (all amounts except share price in U.S. dollars). The company earned $1.8 billion, or $5.95 a share, up 84.2% from $980.7 million, or $3.23 a share....
A rebounding global economy continues to push up resource prices. That has helped raise the prices of Canadian oil stocks and companies that serve them, including Precision Drilling Corp. (symbol PD on Toronto). Precision provides contract-drilling services to oil and natural gas producers, mainly in western Canada. Precision recently converted from an income trust to a conventional corporation. The Canadian oil stock’s investors received one common share for each trust unit they held. In light of that and other changes at the company, we’ve updated our buy/sell/hold advice on Precision in the current issue of The Successful Investor. (Read on to find out how you can get a free copy of this issue. Along with our latest buy/sell/hold advice on Precision, the issue contains our full analysis of 19 other investments that could be suitable for your portfolio.)...
Lately, more Inner Circle members have been asking us about investing in commodity stocks that mine or process rare earth elements. Rare earths are used in a variety of modern devices and applications, including catalytic converters and petroleum refining; magnets in small and large motors; glass additives and glass polishing compounds; rechargeable batteries; television and computer screens; lighting; X-ray machines; and lasers. Prices of rare earth elements have risen sharply. That’s mainly because China, which accounts for around 95% of global production, has imposed a 72% cut in export quotas for the second half of 2010. China regularly imposes quotas on exports of rare earths to boost prices internationally and ensure enough supplies for Chinese companies....
Last week, the Canadian government said it would block BHP Billiton’s (New York symbol BHP) hostile, $38.6-billion U.S. takeover bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (New York and Toronto symbol POT). However, under the Investment Canada Act, which governs foreign takeovers of Canadian companies, BHP now has 30 days to modify its offer so that it is a “net benefit” to Canada. In light of the federal government’s decision, we updated our buy/sell/hold advice in last week’s Successful Investor and Wall Street Stock Forecaster hotlines. We cover Potash Corp. in The Successful Investor and BHP in Wall Street Stock Forecaster....
In January 2005, we recommended fertilizer-maker Agrium Inc. as our Successful Investor newsletter’s “Stock of the Year.” At the time, the stock was trading at $19.51. By the end of the year, it had risen to $25.62, and investors who followed our advice saw a gain of 31%. Agrium’s positive outlook led us to name it The Successful Investor‘s “Stock of the Year” again in 2006 (it went on to rise 42.1% that year), and again in 2007 (during which it jumped 88.8%.)
Rising food demand and ethanol use pushed potash stocks higher
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As a member of TSI Network, you’re likely aware that we’ve just released a new free special report, Commodity Investments: Fertilizer Stocks and Potash Stocks That Will Profit from Rising Food Demand. (If you haven’t seen this new free report, click here to download your copy right away.) We wrote Commodity Investments: Fertilizer Stocks and Potash Stocks That Will Profit from Rising Food Demand in response to rising investor interest in agricultural commodities. This interest is largely the result of BHP Billiton’s (symbol BHP on New York) $38.6-billion takeover bid for Potash Corp. (symbol POT on Toronto), as well as sharp increases in commodity prices, notably wheat.