CENOVUS ENERGY INC. $28 - New York symbol CVE

CENOVUS ENERGY INC. $28 (New York symbol CVE; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 751.7 million; Market cap: $21.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.8; Dividend yield: 2.7%; WSSF Rating: Extra Risk) operates three oil-sands properties in Alberta and one in Saskatchewan. It ships the tar-like oil (called bitumen) from these projects to refineries in Illinois and Texas. ConocoPhillips (New York symbol COP) owns 50% of these refineries, as well as 50% of the company’s two main oil-sands projects. Cenovus also owns conventional oil and gas properties. Cenovus believes its oil and natural-gas reserves will last 14.7 years. These large reserves mean that the company does not need to spend heavily on exploration. That cuts its risk. In the three months ended March 31, 2010, Cenovus earned $353 million, or $0.47 a share (all amounts except share price and market cap in Canadian dollars). That’s down 14.7% from $414 million, or $0.55 a share, a year earlier. Cash flow per share fell 3.0%, to $0.96 from $0.99. Lower natural gas prices and a drop in earnings at its refining operations were the main reasons for the declines. Rather than pursuing acquisitions, Cenovus plans to focus on developing its oil-sands properties in northern Alberta. The company aims to produce 300,000 barrels of bitumen a day by the end of 2019. That’s more than a fivefold increase over its 2010 first-quarter production of 58,546 barrels a day. Extracting and processing bitumen from oil sands is hugely expensive compared to regular oil wells. However, Cenovus has some of the lowest production costs in the oil-sands industry. That’s mainly because it uses new technology that injects steam into its wells. The steam loosens the bitumen and makes it easier to pump to the surface. The stock trades at a reasonable 16.9 times Cenovus’ likely 2010 earnings of $1.72 (Canadian) a share. It also trades at 8.3 times the company’s expected cash flow per share of $3.49. Cenovus Energy is a buy.

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