How To Invest
In addition, Pat thinks then beginner investors should cultivate two important qualities: a healthy sense of skepticism and patience.
Investors should approach all investments with a healthy sense of skepticism. This can help keep you out of fraudulent stocks that masquerade as high-quality stocks. It will also keep you out of legally operated, but poorly managed, companies that promise more than they can possibly deliver.
If you are a new investor, you should also realize that losing patience can cause you to sell your best choices right before a big rise. All too often, investors buy a promising stock just as it enters a period of price stagnation. Even the best-performing stocks run into these unpredictable phases from time to time. They move mainly sideways in a wide range for months or years before their next big rise begins. (Stock brokers often refer to these stocks as “dead money.”)
If you lack patience, you run a big risk of selling your best choices in the midst of one of these phases, prior to the next big move upward. If you lose patience and sell, you are particularly likely to do so in the low end of the trading range, when stock prices have weakened and confidence in the stock has waned.
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ISHARES CHINA LARGE-CAP ETF $33.03 (New York symbol FXI; buy or sell through brokers) is an exchange traded fund that aims to track the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) China 50 Index, which is made up of the 50 largest, most-liquid Chinese stocks. Top holdings include Tencent Holdings, China Mobile, China Construction Bank, Bank of China and Ping An Insurance. The ETF has an MER of 0.74%. Chinese stocks are down sharply since last summer. National leader Xi Jinping seems focused on shoring up the Communist party and the Chinese stock market, rather than strengthening the Chinese economy. Meanwhile China still has strong long-term growth potential, but needs to get its economy back on track....
VANGUARD GROWTH ETF $107.44 (New York symbol VUG; buy or sell through brokers) aims to track the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) U.S. Large Cap Growth Index. It’s a broadly diversified index that mainly consists of big U.S. companies. This Vanguard ETF has an MER of just 0.09%. The $46.8 billion fund holds Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon.com, Coca-Cola, Home Depot, Walt Disney. Other top holdings include Philip Morris International, Comcast, Visa, Gilead Sciences and Oracle Corp. Its breakdown by industry is as follows: Technology, 23.9%; Consumer Services, 23.0%; Health Care, 14.2%; Financials, 12.5%; Industrials, 11.5%; Consumer Goods, 10.9%; Oil and Gas, 2.7%; Materials, 1.0%; and Telecom Services, 0.3%....
VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS ETF $34.00 (New York symbol VWO; buy or sell through brokers) aims to track the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) Emerging Index. It’s made up of the common stock of companies in developing countries. The fund’s MER is just 0.15%. The top holdings of Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets include Taiwan Semiconductor (Taiwan: computer chips), Tencent Holdings (China: Internet), China Mobile, China Construction Bank, Naspers Ltd. (South Africa: media), Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Hon Hai Precision Industry (Taiwan: electronics), Infosys (India: information technology) and Housing Development Finance (India: banking). The breakdown by country for this $45.1 billion fund is as follows: China, 27.3%; Taiwan, 15.9%; India, 12.0%; South Africa, 8.1%; Brazil, 6.7%; Mexico, 5.5%; Malaysia, 4.6%; Russia, 4.3%; Thailand, 3.0%; Indonesia, 3.0%; Philippines, 2.0%; Poland, 1.5%; Turkey, 1.8%; and others, 5.8%....
CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY $170.25 (Toronto symbol CP; Shares outstanding: 153.0 million; Market cap: $26.3 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; Dividend yield: 0.8%; www.cpr.ca) has agreed to sell a parcel of land—the Arbutus Corridor—to the City of Vancouver. Canadian Pacific stopped running trains through the Arbutus Corridor in 2001. Since then, the company has considered several options to re-develop the property. These included building a facility to store railcars. The municipal government opposed those plans. The sale price of $55 million is small next to the $1.6 billion, or $10.10 a share, that CP earned in 2015. But the deal also gives the company additional payments linked to future development of the property....
ARC RESOURCES $18.38 (Toronto symbol ARX; Shares outstanding: 348.3 million; Market cap: $6.2 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative; Dividend yield: 3.3%; www.arcresources.com) produces oil and natural gas in Western Canada. Its average daily output of 119,243 barrels of oil equivalent is 66% gas and 34% oil. In the three months ended December 31, 2015, ARC’s cash flow per share dropped 26.6%, to $0.58 from $0.79 a year earlier. Production increased 1.1%, but its realized oil price fell 32.1%. Gas prices declined 37.6%. Like many oil and gas producers, ARC is cutting exploration and development spending. In 2016, it will devote $390.0 million to this purpose. That’s down 29.1% from $550.0 in 2015....
CRESCENT POINT ENERGY $17.64 (Toronto symbol CPG; Shares outstanding: 504.9 million; Market cap: $8.7 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend y ield: 2.0%; www.crescentpointenergy.com) produces oil and natural gas in Western Canada, with a focus on its Bakken light oil development in southeastern Saskatchewan. Its output is 90% oil and 10% gas. In the three months ended December 31, 2015, Crescent Point’s cash flow fell 13.3%, to $496.7 million from $572.8 million a year earlier. The company raised its daily output by 14.5%, but lower oil and gas prices offset that increase. Cash flow per share dropped 23.4%, to $0.98 from $1.28, because Crescent Point issued shares to pay for acquisitions. They include the $1.5 billion the company paid for Legacy Oil + Gas in June 2015....
PENGROWTH ENERGY $1.54 (Toronto symbol PGF; Shares outstanding: 543.0 million; Market cap: $792.8 million; TSINetwork Rating: Average; No dividends paid; www.pengrowth.com) has moved up on news that prominent Toronto investor Seymour Schulich now owns 14.7% of the company’s shares. That makes him Pengrowth’s largest shareholder. Schulich has a long history of investing in small oil and mining firms. These include a 27.6% stake in Birchcliff Resources (Toronto symbol BIR). Birchcliff is a recommendation of Stock Pickers Digest, our newsletter that focuses on aggressive investments. Schulich’s involvement is likely a plus for Pengrowth. But its shares will need stronger oil prices in order to move higher....
ISHARES CANADIAN SHORT-TERM BOND INDEX ETF $28.47 (Toronto symbol XSB; buy or sell through brokers) mirrors the performance of the DEX Short-Term Bond Index. This index consists of a range of investment-grade federal, provincial, municipal and corporate bonds with one- to five-year terms to maturity. The fund holds 437 bonds with an average term to maturity of 2.94 years. The bonds in the index are 65.0% government and 35.0% corporate. The fund’s MER is 0.28%. The iShares Canadian Short-Term Bond Index Fund yields 2.4%, but this high yield is due to the fact that some of the fund’s bonds pay above-market interest rates. As a result, they trade above their face value. When these bonds mature, holders will only get the bonds’ face value, meaning the portfolio will incur predictable capital losses. These losses will offset some of the appeal of the above-market yields....
ISHARES CANADIAN UNIVERSE BOND INDEX ETF $31.87 (Toronto symbol XBB; buy or sell through brokers) mirrors the performance of the Canadian Universe Bond Index. The 957 bonds in the portfolio have an average term to maturity of 10.26 years. The fund’s MER is 0.33%. The bonds in the index are 72.0% government and 28.0% corporate. The fund yields 2.8%, compared to the Short-Term Bond Fund’s 2.4%. Its yield to maturity is 1.96%, 0.75 percentage points above the Short-Term Fund. That reflects the added risk of long-term bonds....
PENN WEST $1.17 (Toronto symbol PWT; Shs. o/s: 502.2 million; Market cap: $582.5 million; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative; No dividends paid; www.pennwest.com) has sold oilproducing properties worth over $1 billion since the start of 2015. Even so, its debt is still a very high $1.9 billion, or 3.3 times its market cap. In the three months ended December 31, 2015, Penn West’s production fell 20.3%, to an average of 77,398 barrels per day from 97,143. Cash flow per share fell sharply, to just $7.0 million, or $0.01 a share, from $137.0 million, or $0.28 a share. Penn West may still need to sell more assets to meet scheduled debt repayments. But without significantly higher oil and gas prices, those sales will further cut its already low cash flow....