In addition, Pat thinks then beginner investors should cultivate two important qualities: a healthy sense of skepticism and patience.
Investors should approach all investments with a healthy sense of skepticism. This can help keep you out of fraudulent stocks that masquerade as high-quality stocks. It will also keep you out of legally operated, but poorly managed, companies that promise more than they can possibly deliver.
If you are a new investor, you should also realize that losing patience can cause you to sell your best choices right before a big rise. All too often, investors buy a promising stock just as it enters a period of price stagnation. Even the best-performing stocks run into these unpredictable phases from time to time. They move mainly sideways in a wide range for months or years before their next big rise begins. (Stock brokers often refer to these stocks as “dead money.”)
If you lack patience, you run a big risk of selling your best choices in the midst of one of these phases, prior to the next big move upward. If you lose patience and sell, you are particularly likely to do so in the low end of the trading range, when stock prices have weakened and confidence in the stock has waned.
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United Technologies fell slightly in late November, after Louis Chenevert, its chief executive for the past six years, retired suddenly. However, new CEO Gregory Hayes (who is also a former vice-president) will likely continue Chenevert’s focus on the company’s main aerospace and construction divisions.
These businesses operate in cyclical markets, but their outlook is bright. Airlines are replacing their aging fleets, increasing demand for jet engines and other parts, while developing countries’ ongoing urbanization fuels building-product sales.
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This week we received a question from an Inner Circle Member about one of Canada’s leading packaging firms. CCL Industries makes 83% of its revenue from pressure-sensitive labels, and the U.S. and Europe supply 73% of its overall revenue. The company grows by acquisition and bought three companies in 2014 alone. Pat balances CCL’s ability to build market share with its size and technology against the risk of growth by acquisition and exposure to volatile commodity prices.
Q: Pat: Do you have any comments on CCL Industries as an investment? Thanks.
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TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORP. (New York symbol TUP; www.tupperwarebrands.com) makes household goods, mainly plastic food and beverage containers, as well as cosmetics and fragrances.
In the quarter ended September 27, 2014, Tupperware’s sales fell 2.4%, to $588.7 million from $603.2 million a year earlier.
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Here’s why: Investors love to sell stocks for a profit, but they hate to sell at a loss. That’s why many investors spread their selling-for-a-profit throughout the year, while holding on to stocks that have dropped.
Toward year-end, it occurs to these investors that they’ll have to pay taxes on their capital gains, regardless of whether they made money overall. This leads some investors to dump their losers near year-end, simply to establish a capital loss for tax purposes, to offset a capital gain.
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CAE INC. (Toronto symbol CAE; www.cae.com) gets 55% of its revenue by selling flight simulators and pilot-training services to commercial airlines. Another 40% comes from simulators and training for military clients, mainly in the U.S.
CAE gets the remaining 5% of its sales by making medical-simulation products, such as mannequins, for training nurses and medical students.
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This week an Inner Circle member asked us about Canadian engineering firm WPS Group. This firm’s growth strategy centres on the steady acquisition of smaller firms. This approach (similar to that of Edmonton-based engineering firm Stantec, a stock we follow in Stock Pickers Digest) has been producing profitable results for WPS. Pat examines all four of the company’s 2014 acquisitions and assesses the risk that comes with the acquisition and integration of new firms.
Q: Dear Pat: I would like to have your opinion on WSP Global. Thank you very much.
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This week we had a question from an Inner Circle Member on a Canadian health care stock. Concordia Health Care takes a different approach from many larger drug firms, preferring to buy mature products as opposed to developing its own treatments. It recently acquired the rights to a second-generation epilepsy drug; its other main drug treats irritable bowel syndrome and enterocolitis. Concordia’s sales and share price have both risen. Pat looks at the challenges the company faces in finding new drugs and fighting off generic competition. Q: Hi: Would you give me your opinion on Concordia Health Care? Thank you.
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In the three months ended June 30, 2014, ARC’s cash flow per share jumped 43.1%, to $0.93 from $0.65 a year earlier.
Production gained 17.9%, even though maintenance on existing wells cost the company an estimated 2,400 barrels a day in the latest quarter. ARC’s realized gas price rose 28.3%. Oil prices increased 14.5%.
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In the three months ended September 30, 2014, Pengrowth produced 72,472 barrels a day (including gas), down 13.0% from 83,275 barrels a year earlier. That’s mainly because it sold several less important oil and gas properties in Western Canada.
Pengrowth is investing the proceeds from these sales in more promising projects, like its Lindbergh oil sands development in Alberta’s Cold Lake region. Lindbergh should start up in early 2015 and produce 12,500 barrels a day. Future phases will raise the project’s daily output to 50,000 barrels.
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TransCanada now owns seven of the nine solar farms it agreed to buy from Canadian Solar in 2011. It will probably take possession of the remaining two in 2015. In all, it will pay about $500 million.
The company has 20-year deals to sell the power from these solar farms, which cuts this investment’s risk.
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