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Investors want to know what we think about real estate investing in Canada — and the answers may surprise you.
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RIOCAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST $26.68 (Toronto symbol REI.UN; Units outstanding: 321.9 million; Market cap: $8.7 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 5.2%; www.riocan.com) owns all or part of 305 shopping centres in Canada, including 16 properties under development. The trust pays monthly distributions of $0.1175 a unit, for a 5.2% annual yield. These payouts accounted for 90.4% of RioCan’s cash flow in 2015. However, 31.5% of the trust’s investors take part in its distribution reinvestment plan, so they get units rather than cash. On this basis, RioCan’s cash payouts were a more reasonable 62.0% of its cash flow. (If you want the units instead of cash, you still have to pay income taxes on your distributions for the year when you receive them.) This week, RioCan announced that with the April 2016 distribution, it eliminated the 3.1% discount it offered to unitholders who reinvested their distributions....
The Bank of Canada is unlikely to raise interest rates any time soon. That’s because low prices for oil and other commodities will likely continue to offset higher exports due to a low Canadian dollar, as well as increased government spending. Even so, the long-term outlook is for higher interest rates. That’s because heavy deficit spending and the expansion of the money supply in the past few years make higher inflation more likely. We continue to advise against investing in bonds right now. That’s because today’s low interest rates make bonds unattractive, and rising rates would push down their future value....
TORSTAR $1.76 (Toronto symbol TS.B; Shares outstanding: 79.9 million; Market cap: $127.3 million; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 14.8%; www.torstar.com) launched a digital version of The Toronto Star, its flagship newspaper, for tablet computers in September 2015. So far, Star Touch has attracted over 65,000 weekly and 26,000 daily users. The company spent $14 million in 2015 to set up Star Touch, and will spend another $10 million this year. It expects Star Touch will break even in 2017. Torstar is still a buy.
PENN WEST $1.17 (Toronto symbol PWT; Shs. o/s: 502.2 million; Market cap: $582.5 million; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative; No dividends paid; www.pennwest.com) has sold oilproducing properties worth over $1 billion since the start of 2015. Even so, its debt is still a very high $1.9 billion, or 3.3 times its market cap. In the three months ended December 31, 2015, Penn West’s production fell 20.3%, to an average of 77,398 barrels per day from 97,143. Cash flow per share fell sharply, to just $7.0 million, or $0.01 a share, from $137.0 million, or $0.28 a share. Penn West may still need to sell more assets to meet scheduled debt repayments. But without significantly higher oil and gas prices, those sales will further cut its already low cash flow....