Think Positive on 2008

Article Excerpt

Like any year, 2008 could turn out good or bad for investors. But everything I see leads me to believe it will be a year of rising stock prices. First, 2008 is the year of the next U.S. presidential election. As long-time readers know, I view the U.S. presidential election year cycle as the single best indicator for American stock prices. Historically, stock prices are much likelier to rise in the two years leading up to a U.S. presidential election than in the two subsequent years. Some years deviate from the historical pattern, of course. Markets do sometimes fall in presidential election years, and President Bush’s low approval ratings might suggest it could happen in 2008. However, some of the problems that have dogged the Bush administration are improving. Iraq is becoming more peaceful and potentially less costly for the U.S. The French now support U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. trade and budget deficits are shrinking. The U.S. dollar is substantially lower than a..