A Word on Bottoms

Article Excerpt

In a bear market, or stock market downturn like the one we are now in, investors spend a lot of time wondering about “the bottom”. Sometimes, the market seems to turn around overnight, and the indexes quickly shoot upward. Other times, the indexes bump along near the bottom for months or even years. Here are two consistent things about bottoms: 1. You can only recognize them in hindsight. 2. When bottoms do occur, skepticism greets any suggestion that they represent a lasting change. The Standard & Poor’s 500 — a reasonable proxy for all North American stocks, U.S. and Canadian — hit a low of around 750 in the second half of November. It then began to climb, reaching 940 or so early in the new year. The consensus seems to be that this is a temporary rise that will soon give way to a further decline. However, despite a flood of bad economic news, the S&P 500 and most other indexes remain above…