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Wealth Management
Investor Toolkit: Why the rules of boom and bust never change
Every Wednesday, we publish our ‘Investor Toolkit’ series on TSI Network. Whether you’re a new or experienced investor, these weekly updates are designed to give you specific stock market advice and other investment tips that will help you develop a successful approach to investing. Each Investor Toolkit update gives you a fundamental tip and shows you how you can put it into practice right away.
Today’s tip:
‘At market bottoms and market peaks, many investors seem to think we’ve entered a new age where the old rules don’t apply, but that’s just not true.’...
3 min read
Pat McKeough
How To Invest
Canada’s largest REIT tightens hold on U.S. properties
Canada’s real estate investment trusts (REITs) were the only category of trusts exempted from the federal government’s income trust tax. This has helped them remain popular with investors seeking both income and capital gains. Today we look at a major Canadian REIT that continues to add to its shopping centre empire, in the U.S. as well as Canada.
RIOCAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
(Toronto symbol REI.UN; www.riocan.com) is Canada’s largest real estate investment trust (REIT). It has interests in 278 shopping malls in Canada, including 10 under development. These properties contain over 59 million square feet of leasable area....
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Wealth Management
Here’s why you don’t need to take drastic measures against inflation
Gold and silver bullion
Jesse Karjalainen
Not long ago, a member of our Inner Circle asked a question that’s too broad for a simple answer: “With its large and cheap labour force, China has been exporting deflation to the rest of the world. It seems that this trend is now reversing and China will be exporting inflation. Chinese workers are demanding higher wages and are becoming consumers. What strategy can you suggest to prepare for this eventuality?”...
3 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
ADOBE SYSTEMS $33.44 - Nasdaq symbol ADBE
ADOBE SYSTEMS $33.44
(
Nasdaq symbol ADBE; TSINetwork Rating: Average) (408-536-6000; www.adobe.com; Shares outstanding: 496.1 million; Market cap: $16.6 billion; No dividends paid
) makes software that lets computer users create, edit and share documents in the popular PDF format. As well, graphic designers use Adobe’s software to create print publications and web pages.
Adobe’s revenue rose 6.6% in the three months ended August 31, 2012, to $1.08 billion from $1.03 billion a year earlier. Even so, that missed the consensus estimate of $1.1 billion.
The company is doing a good job of selling its Creative Cloud package of photo-editing and desktop-publishingprograms as a subscription service instead of a one-time purchase.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
FAIR ISAAC CORP. $44.96 - New York symbol FICO
FAIR ISAAC CORP. $44.96
(
New York symbol FICO; TSINetwork Rating: Average) (415-472-2211; www.fairisaac.com; Shares outstanding: 33.8 million; Market cap: $1.5 billion; Dividend yield: 0.2%
) makes FICO Scores, the computer program that dominates the market for software that businesses use to evaluate customer creditworthiness. The company is also profiting by selling software that helps credit card issuers control fraud and analyze their clients’ spending patterns. I
In its fiscal 2012 third quarter, which ended June 30, 2012, Fair Isaac’s earnings per share rose 1.7%, to $0.59 from $0.58. That matched the consensus estimate of $0.59. Revenue rose 6.5%, to $160.5 million from $150.7 million.
Research spending is a hidden plus
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
TEMPUR-PEDIC $33.39 - New York symbol TPX
TEMPUR-PEDIC $33.39
(
New York symbol TPX; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (800- 878-8889; www.tempurpedic.com; Shares outstanding: 59.5 million; Market cap: $2.0 billion; No dividends paid) plans to buy rival Sealy Corp. (symbol ZZ on New York
) for $1.3 billion.
Sealy, which was founded in 1881, makes a wide range of spring-coil beds under the Sealy, Sealy Posturepedic, Sealy Embody, Stearns & Foster and Bassett brands.
The purchase lets Tempur-Pedic diversify into the market for traditional spring-coil beds. Right now, the company manufactures and distributes therapeutic mattresses and pillows made from its Tempur material. But that’s become a more competitive market because other mattress makers have introduced many new products and supported them with aggressive promotions.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
AMAZON.COM $247.49 - Nasdaq symbol AMZN
AMAZON.COM $247.49
(
Nasdaq symbol AMZN; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (206-266-1000; www.amazon.com; Shares outstanding: 452.1 million; Market cap: $111.9 billion; No dividends paid
) is now launching a new service, called Amazon Lending, which will offer loans to its online sellers.
This new service adds credit risk—the company will make loans of up to $800,000 to selected merchants—but the move should boost Amazon’s sales. That’s because the additional cash will let merchants stock more inventory to sell through the company’s websites, especially heading into the holiday season.
Amazon.com is still a hold.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
NISSAN MOTOR CO. $17.11 - Nasdaq symbol NSANY
NISSAN MOTOR CO. (
ADR) $17.11
(Nasdaq symbol NSANY; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average) (310-771-3111; www.nissanmotors.com; Shares outstanding: 2.3 billion; Market cap: $39.4 billion; No dividends paid
) has won a big contract with New York City’s Taxi and Limousine Commission to replace over 13,000 of the city’s taxi cabs that are nearing the end of their useful lives. Nissan beat out Ford (symbol F on New York) for the contract.
The vote went 5 to 2 for Nissan to supply its NV200 “Taxi of Tomorrow” sedan. The commission will put the new fleet into service beginning in October 2013. The cars will last for over a decade.
Powered by a 2.0-litre four-cylinder engine, the NV200s have much lower carbon emissions and better fuel efficiency than the cars they are replacing.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
RUBY TUESDAY, INC. $7.65 - New York symbol RT
RUBY TUESDAY, INC. $7.65
(
New York symbol RT; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (865-379-5700; www.rubytuesday.com; Shares outstanding: 64.0 million; Market cap: $489.6 million; No dividends paid
) reports that its sales rose 0.8% in the three months ended September 4, 2012, to $332.9 million from $330.3 million a year earlier. Sales rose even though the company closed 27 less profitable restaurants. Same-restaurant sales rose 1.9%.
Excluding one-time items, the company earned $0.05 a share in the latest quarter, unchanged from a year earlier. That matched the consensus estimate.
Ruby Tuesday has developed a number of new restaurant concepts, including Marlin & Ray’s seafood estaurants and Lime Fresh Mexican Grills. The company feels these new layouts will help it compete in certain towns and cities. It’s now building new restaurants under these banners and converting underperforming outlets.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
IAMGOLD $15.89 - Toronto symbol IMG
IAMGOLD $15.89
(
Toronto symbol IMG; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (1-888-464- 9999; www.iamgold.com; Shares outstanding: 376.1 million; Market cap: $6.0 billion; Dividend yield: 1.6%
) owns interests in five mines, but also a number of promising exploration and development properties.
Among its holdings is the Cote Lake gold project, located between Timmins and Sudbury. IAMGold acquired Cote Lake earlier this year, when it bought Trelawney Mining and Exploration for $608 million.
Cote Lake held an estimated 6.9 million ounces of gold when IAMGold bought Trelawney. But IAMGold has just released drilling results that have further defined the deposit, and the estimate has now grown by 18.8%, to 8.2 million ounces. There’s also lots of room for more drilling to further expand the project’s reserves.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
YAMANA GOLD $19.30 - Toronto symbol YRI
YAMANA GOLD $19.30
(
Toronto symbol YRI; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (416-815-0220; www.- yamana.com; Shares outstanding: 751.3 million; Market cap: $14.5 billion; Dividend yield: 1.3%
) owns seven operating gold mines in Mexico, Brazil, Chile and Argentina. It also holds a 12.5% stake in the Alumbrera copper/gold mine in Argentina, and has a number of other properties in advanced stages of development.
In the quarter ended June 30, 2012, Yamana’s revenue fell 6.6%, to $535.7 million from $573.3 million a year earlier (all figures except share price and market cap in U.S. dollars). Gold production and prices rose, but prices for copper and silver, which are both significant byproducts of Yamana’s gold mining, dropped. Cash flow per share fell 27.3%, to $0.32 from $0.44.
Yamana held a high cash balance of $698.9 million, or $0.93 a share, on June 30. Its $765.5 million of debt is just 5.5% of its market cap. The shares yield 1.3%.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
NEW GOLD $11.84 - Toronto symbol NGD
NEW GOLD $11.84
(
Toronto symbol NGD; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (888-315-9715; www.newgold- .com; Shares outstanding: 462.0 million; Market cap: $5.5 billion; No dividends paid
) has four operating mines: the Mesquite mine in the U.S., the Cerro San Pedro mine in Mexico, the Peak mine in Australia and the just-completed New Afton mine in B.C. It also owns 30% of the El Morro copper/gold project in Chile (Goldcorp Inc. owns the other 70%).
El Morro contains an estimated 4.7 million ounces of gold and 3.7 billion pounds of copper. New Gold also owns the Blackwater property in central B.C., which could hold as much as 7.8 million ounces of gold.
The company reported cash flow of $0.12 per share in the three months ended June 30, 2012, up 20.0% from $0.10 a share a year earlier.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
DOREL INDUSTRIES $35.39 - Toronto symbol DII.B
DOREL INDUSTRIES $35.39
(
Toronto symbol DII.B; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (514-731-0000; www.dorel.com; Shares outstanding: 31.9 million; Market cap: $1.1 billion; Dividend yield: 3.4%
) has bought majority interests in two distributors of infant and children’s products in Colombia and Central America.
Dorel is buying 70% of Best Brands Group SA in Panama and Baby Universe SAS in Colombia. Best Brands and Baby Universe had combined sales of $14 million last year.
This purchase fits nicely with Dorel’s plan to focus on international expansion. The company will now use Best Brands and Baby Universe to sell more of its products throughout South America.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
TIM HORTONS $50.75 - Toronto symbol THI
TIM HORTONS $50.75
(
Toronto symbol THI; TSINetwork Rating: Average) (905-845-6511; www.timhortons- .com; Shares outstanding: 154.9 million; Market cap: $7.9 billion; Dividend yield: 1.7%
) operates 3,326 coffee-and-donut shops in Canada, 734 in the U.S. and 11 in the Middle East.
The company earned $0.70 a share in the three months ended July 1, 2012. That’s up 20.7% from $0.58 a share a year earlier. Sales rose 11.8%, to $785.6 million from $702.8 million. Tim Hortons opened 19 outlets in Canada, six in the U.S. and seven internationally during the quarter. Same-store sales (which exclude new outlets) rose 4.9% in the U.S. and 1.8% in Canada.
The company held its prices steady, but it benefited from new products, such as espresso drinks, and new hot drink sizes, including a 24-ounce cup. Tim Hortons’ breakfast business was especially strong in the latest quarter.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
CALIAN TECHNOLOGIES $20.50 - Toronto symbol CTY
CALIAN TECHNOLOGIES $20.50
(
Toronto symbol CTY; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (613- 599-8600; www.calian.com; Shares outstanding: 7.7 million; Market cap: $157.9 million; Dividend yield: 5.5%
) operates in two areas: the business and technology services division (which supplies 70% of Calian’s revenue) provides engineers, health care workers and other skilled professionals to clients on a contract basis. The systems engineering division (30% of revenue) sells hardware and software for testing, operating and managing satellite and other communication systems.
In the three months ended June 30, 2012, Calian’s revenue rose 1.4%, to $59.3 million from $58.5 million a year earlier. Earnings rose slightly, to $3.48 million, or $0.45 a share, from $3.45 million, or $0.45 a share.
Earlier this year, Calian bought Primacy Management Inc. of Burlington, Ontario, for $5.2 million. Since 2003, Primacy has been designing, building and managing in-store health clinics for Loblaw Companies (symbol L on Toronto). Primacy now operates 112 such clinics in Loblaw’s stores across Canada.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS $362.94 - Toronto symbol FFH
FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS $362.94
(
Toronto symbol FFH: TSINetwork Rating: Average) (416-367-2612; www.fairfax.ca; Shares outstanding: 19.9 million; Market cap: $7.2 billion; Dividend yield: 2.7%
) mainly sells insurance and reinsurance, but it also manages investments, including a $3.8-billion stock portfolio. To protect these stock investments against a market drop, the company has insured its entire portfolio using derivatives.
This strategy lowers the company’s losses if markets drop, but it also cuts sharply into share-price gains when markets go up. That means that if markets continue to rise—as we think they will—Fairfax’s derivatives will significantly hold back the company’s share price.
Fairfax is now a sell.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
CARFINCO FINANCIAL GROUP $9.98 - Toronto symbol CFN
CARFINCO FINANCIAL GROUP $9.98
(
Toronto symbol CFN; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (1-888- 486-4356; www.carfinco.com; Shares outstanding: 24.6 million; Market cap: $245.5 million; Dividend yield: 4.8%
) provides car loans to consumers who aren’t able to meet the criteria of traditional lenders, like banks.
The company offers its loans through 1,459 car dealers across Canada. About 60% of its loan portfolio is in western Canada, and 40% is in eastern Canada. The company recently entered the Quebec market.
In the three months ended June 30, 2012, Carfinco’s revenue rose 22.9%, to $17.7 million from $14.4 million a year earlier. The company loaned a record $36.8 million in the latest quarter, up 31.4% from $28.0 million.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
INTACT FINANCIAL CORP. $60 - Toronto symbol IFC
INTACT FINANCIAL CORP. $60
(
Toronto symbol IFC; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (416-341-1464; www.intactfc.com; Shares outstanding: 129.6 million; Market cap: $7.8 billion; Dividend yield: 2.7%
) is Canada’s largest provider of property and casualty insurance, based on premiums. Its brands include Intact Insurance, Canada BrokerLink, belairdirect and Grey Power.
In the three months ended June 30, 2012, Intact’s revenue rose 47.8%, to $1.59 billion from $1.08 billion a year earlier. That was mainly due to the contribution from AXA Canada, which Intact bought from Parisbased ASX Group for $2.6 billion last year.
AXA Canada is the country’s sixth-largest home, auto and commercial insurer. It also gives Intact a presence in Quebec, B.C. and Atlantic Canada.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
WESTJET AIRLINES $18.00 - Toronto symbol WJA
WESTJET AIRLINES $18.00
(
Toronto symbol WJA; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (1- 877-493-7853; www.westjet.com; Shares outstanding: 126.3 million; Market cap: $2.3 billion; Dividend yield: 1.8%
) is now in the process of upgrading its interline agreement with British Airways to a full code-sharing arrangement. This will be WestJet’s eighth code-sharing deal.
Code-sharing agreements let airlines sell seats on one another’s planes using the same two-digit code. In this case, the BA code will be used when travellers on British Airways flights to Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto connect to WestJet-operated flights to Ottawa, Edmonton and Victoria.
Code-sharing agreements are especially valuable for attracting business passengers because they let customers seamlessly connect between flights and gain frequent flyer points for the entire distance travelled.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
DOMINO’S PIZZA $41.20 - New York symbol DPZ
DOMINO’S PIZZA $41.20
(
New York symbol DPZ; TSINetwork Rating: Average) (734-930-3030; www.dominos.com; Shares outstanding: 56.7 million; Market cap: $2.3 billion; No dividends paid
) continues to benefit from its new pizza recipes, digital ordering and aggressive international expansion.
The stock jumped over 7% on October 16, 2012, when the company reported higher earnings in the quarter ended September 9, 2012. Earnings per share jumped 22.2%, to $0.44 from $0.36 a year earlier. Same-store sales rose 3.3% in the U.S. and 5.0% internationally.
Domino’s opened its 10,000th store in September. It now has 10,040 outlets in the U.S. and over 70 other countries. Franchisees run most of its stores.
...
1 min read
Pat McKeough
Growth Stocks
AIMIA INC. $14.95 - Toronto symbol AIM
AIMIA INC. $14.95
(
Toronto symbol AIM; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (514-205-7315; www.aimia.com; Shares outstanding: 172.2 million; Market cap: $2.6 billion; Dividend yield: 4.3%
) got its start as Air Canada’s frequent-flyer program in 1984. In 2005, the airline created the Aeroplan Income Fund and began selling units to the public.
The fund converted to a corporation under the Groupe Aeroplan name in 2008. In May 2012, it changed its name to Aimia.
Moving beyond Aeroplan
...
3 min read
Pat McKeough
Energy Stocks
SeaDrill looks to maintain full drilling capacity and high dividend yield
Pat McKeough responds to many personal questions on investing in stocks and other investment topics from the members of his
Inner Circle
. Every week, his comments and recommendations on the most intriguing questions of the past week go out to all Inner Circle members. And each week, we offer you one of the highlights from these Q&A sessions. While we reserve our buy-hold-sell advice for Inner Circle members, these excerpts provide a great deal of information and analysis on stocks we’ve covered for the Inner Circle. This week, one Inner Circle member asked about one of the more recent energy stocks on the scene. This specialist in deep-sea drilling has only been in business for seven years, which gives it the advantage of having modern high-quality rigs that are in demand. Pat assesses the company’s ability to keep adding to its record backlog and maintain its high dividend yield.
...
3 min read
Pat McKeough
Wealth Management
Why you’ll never be too old to invest in stocks
Compass and canadian dollar close up shot
Yesterday, I discussed the steps investors can take to put a financial contingency plan in place in case a day comes when they are incapacitated (
view the article here
). Today I’d like to follow up by dealing with another aspect of investing that looms larger as people grow older. Like a financial contingency plan, it is linked to the legacy you will leave your heirs. Now and then I meet investors who say they are too old to consider the long term in their portfolios, and have switched from stocks to short-term instruments such as T-bills. Sometimes they support this decision with the time-worn one-liner from Ronald Reagan (or was it cigar-smoking comedian George Burns?): “I don’t even buy green bananas anymore.”...
2 min read
Pat McKeough
Wealth Management
Investor Toolkit: How to leave a financial contingency plan that works for you and your heirs
Every Wednesday, we publish our “Investor Toolkit” series on TSI Network....
3 min read
Pat McKeough
Mining Stocks
Newmont aims for big increases in annual gold production
In September 2011, gold hit an all-time high of $1,900.30 U.S. an ounce. It now trades at around $1,772.50. Gold could well regain its highs and move up even further over the longer term, although it will likely remain volatile. Higher prices would arise from investor fears that inflation or global political and economic instability will hurt key currencies, such as the euro or the U.S. dollar. We feel that it’s okay to hold some gold or silver stocks as part of the Resources component of a well-balanced portfolio, but you’ll want to keep them to a reasonable part of that portfolio....
2 min read
Pat McKeough
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