POTASH CORP. OF SASKATCHEWAN $96 (Toronto symbol POT; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 295.6 million; Market cap: $28.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.6; SI Rating: Average) is the world’s largest fertilizer producer. The company operates six potash mines in Saskatchewan and one in New Brunswick. The reserves of five of these mines should last between 60 and 97 years. The other two mines have minimal or undetermined reserves.
The stock hit an all-time high of $246 in June 2008, but fell to $62 last December. The drop was caused by lower prices for crops, which hurt demand for fertilizers like potash. As well, farmers in North America and Australia are seeing better-than-expected crop yields this year, even though they applied less fertilizer. This is mainly because of good weather and large amounts of residual fertilizer in the soil from last year.
In an effort to stabilize prices, Potash Corp. will cut its production by 60% this year. Still, global inventories remain high. That’s because many customers stockpiled fertilizers during last year’s boom, in anticipation of continued rising demand. Prices will remain weak until they start using up their inventories.
The company’s earnings will probably drop to $3.51 U.S. a share in 2009 from $11.01 U.S. in 2008. The stock trades at a high 25.7 times this year’s estimate. The $0.40 U.S. dividend yields 0.4%.
Potash Corp. is a hold.
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