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Topic: Dividend Stocks

The Cloud will fuel Microsoft’s dividend


Microsoft LISTEN:  

MICROSOFT CORP. $135 (Nasdaq symbol MSFT; High-Growth Dividend Payer Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 7.6 billion; Market cap: $1.03 trillion; Dividend yield: 1.4%; Dividend Sustainability Rating: Highest; www.microsoft.com) began operating in 1975 and is now the world’s largest computer software company.

Its Windows operating system powers about 80% of the world’s personal computers. Microsoft’s other main product—its Office suite, which includes a word processor (Word), spreadsheets (Excel) and slide presentations (PowerPoint)—controls over half of its market.

15 years of steady dividends

Microsoft began paying regular dividends in 2004 and has increased that rate each year since 2010. With the December 2018 payment, it increased its quarterly dividend by 9.5%, to $0.46 a share from $0.42. The new annual rate of $1.84 yields 1.4%.

The company continues to benefit from its 2014 decision to focus on cloud-computing services. Its main cloud service is Microsoft Azure, which lets individuals and businesses manage databases as well as store and back up their files. Users can run Azure on a wide variety of devices, including smartphones and tablets.

Microsoft gets just over half of its revenue from customers outside of the U.S., and the higher U.S. dollar cut its revenue by 2.6%, from $93.58 billion in 2015 to $91.15 billion in 2016 (fiscal years end June 30). However, revenue rebounded 5.9%, to $96.57 billion in 2017, and rose a further 14.3% to $110.36 billion in 2018. In fiscal 2019, Microsoft’s revenue gained 14.0%, to $125.84 billion.

 

The company’s overall earnings jumped 109.0%, from $12.19 billion in 2015 to $25.49 billion in 2017. On a per-share basis, earnings increased 119.6%, from $1.48 to $3.25, on fewer shares outstanding. A charge related to the U.S. tax reforms cut Microsoft’s earnings to $2.13 a share (or a total of $16.57 billion) in 2018. Earnings then recovered to $5.06 a share (or $39.24 billion) in 2019. If you exclude all unusual items, earnings per share rose 22.4%, from $3.88 in 2018 to $4.75 in 2019.

Adding AI expertise to its cloud businesses

Microsoft’s research costs rose 14.6% in fiscal 2019, to $16.88 billion (or 13.4% of its revenue) from $14.73 billion (13.3%) a year earlier. Part of that spending is going toward adding artificial intelligence (AI) features to its Azure services. AI should make it easier for Azure to recognize images and understand spoken languages, which should speed up its overall performance. Those improvements will help Azure compete with cloud services from Amazon.com and Google.

The company’s strong balance sheet will continue to support the development of new products, as well as higher dividends. As of June 30, 2019, it held cash of $133.8 billion, or $17.51 a share. Its long-term debt of $66.7 billion is a low 6% of its market cap.

Microsoft is also an active buyer of its own shares. It still has $11.4 billion remaining under its current buyback authorization. There are no time limits for those share purchases.

The company’s shares trade at 25.8 times the $5.23 a share it should earn in fiscal 2020. That’s a reasonable multiple in light of its fast-growing cloud business.

Microsoft is a buy.

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