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Topic: Growth Stocks

WEIGHT WATCHERS INTERNATIONAL $26.61 – New York symbol WTW

WEIGHT WATCHERS INTERNATIONAL $26.61 (New York symbol WTW; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (212-589-2700; www.weightwatchers.com; Shares outstanding: 57.2 million; Market cap: $1.5 billion; No dividends paid) declined steadily from over $80 a share in 2012 to a recent low of just under $7. However, the shares jumped on October 19, 2015, when Oprah Winfrey said she had purchased 10% of the company.

Oprah bought 6.4 million shares for $6.79 each and has an option to purchase 3.5 million more at $6.97. She will also join the company’s board of directors.

Founded in 1961, Weight Watchers offers weightloss services in 23 countries. The company promotes a program of lifestyle changes through 36,000 weekly meetings and online. It gets 80% of its revenue through meeting fees and 20% from product sales.

In 1997, Weight Watchers introduced a points system it still uses today. It’s a way of counting calories that takes into account the quality of food you eat.

Sales, earnings have likely hit bottom

Weight Watchers’ revenue rose steadily to $1.55 billion in 2008, then dropped to $1.40 billion in 2009, following the financial crisis. It rebounded to $1.83 billion in 2012 before falling to $1.45 billion in 2014.

This year, the company is expected to generate just $1.16 billion of revenue.

Earnings per share were $2.78 in 2008, then dropped to $2.30 in 2009. They rebounded to $4.23 in 2012 but fell to $1.74 in 2014. This year’s profits are forecast at just $0.72 a share.

In the three months ended October 3, 2015, Weight Watchers’ revenue fell 20.8% to $273.3 million from $345.2 million a year earlier. Total paid weeks declined 15.7%, to 35.5 million from 42.2 million. The number of active subscribers also fell 12.7%, to 2.57 million from 2.95 million (43% who attended meetings and 57% who participated online). Earnings per share dropped 43.3%, to $0.38 from $0.67.

The company holds cash of $212.3 million, or $3.71 a share. Its $2.0 billion of long-term debt is a very high 1.3 times its $1.5-billion market cap, although most of it isn’t due until 2020. A large part of Weight Watchers’ debt remains from the $1.5 billion it borrowed for a big share buyback in 2012.

Oprah’s market a perfect fit

Weight Watchers’ in-person meetings are still a major draw for the company, but it faces a lot of competition from low-cost calorie-counting apps and fitness trackers. To combat that competition, Weight Watchers has launched its own apps and is planning a major new program launch in 2016.

Meanwhile, Oprah will promote Weight Watchers with ads in O, The Oprah Magazine and on OWN, the Oprah Winfrey Network. She has strong appeal among women over the age of 40 living outside big cities, a key market for the company.

Oprah also has more than 29 million followers on Twitter, over four million on Instagram and more than 10 million likes on Facebook. She ranks No. 4 out of 3,786 celebrities for influence, trailing only Kate Middleton, Bill Gates and Taylor Swift.

Investors have a lot of faith in Oprah: the stock has already gained 280% in the last month. If we see any concrete results from Oprah, it could go a lot higher.

Weight Watchers is a buy for highly aggressive investors.

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