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Topic: How To Invest

US Stock Picks: Takeovers help shipper conquer new markets

Stock Investing

Every Thursday we bring you one of our best U.S. stock picks. You will read about stocks making moves you should know about, most often from our newsletter on U.S. investing, Wall Street Stock Forecaster.

FedEx’s stock has risen 80% since the start of 2013. That’s mainly because more consumers are shopping online, which has translated into more packages for the company’s delivery services. Companies are also relying on its just-in-time shipping services to cut their inventory costs and increase their efficiency.

We feel FedEx has lots more growth ahead. And its recent cost-cutting plan— combined with falling fuel costs—should spur its earnings for years to come.

FEDEX CORP. (New York symbol FDX; www.fedex.com) began offering air-delivery services in 1973, under the Federal Express banner. It’s now one the world’s largest shipping firms.

The company has four divisions:

FedEx Express (59% of 2014 revenue, 34% of earnings) offers air-delivery services to over 220 countries. This business has 650 aircraft and 55,000 ground vehicles.

FedEx Ground (25%, 57%) provides ground-delivery services in the U.S. and Canada. Unlike the Express division, FedEx Ground mainly uses independent contractors, who own 42,000 vehicles.

FedEx Freight (13%, 9%) specializes in less-than-truckload ship- ping, which combines freight from multiple customers onto one vehicle. This division operates in the U.S., Canada and Mexico and has 62,000 vehicles.

FedEx Services (3%, nil) provides computer, customer support and other services to FedEx’s three transportation divisions. This segment also operates 1,800 FedEx Office outlets, which sell printing services and packaging materials. Customers can also pick up and drop off packages at these stores.

More businesses are relying on just-in-time delivery to cut their costs and speed up manufacturing. At the same time, online shopping is growing quickly: global e-commerce sales could double, from $656 billion in 2012 to $1.3 trillion by 2017.

Top stocks: Netherlands courier TNT Express latest in a series of takeovers

In 2013, the company announced a major restructuring, including job cuts and merging facilities. The company made the move as consumers shifted toward slower but cheaper forms of transportation, such as trucks and ships, instead of its more expensive overnight international air service.

FedEx imposes surcharges on its customers to shield itself from rising fuel prices. However, it has had to cut these charges in light of falling oil prices. That will hurt its revenue, but cheaper fuel should expand its profit margins. Lower shipping rates should also encourage more customers to switch to the company’s faster air-delivery services.

Meantime, FedEx continues to expand internationally; overseas customers now supply about 30% of its revenue.

In the past three years, FedEx has acquired local delivery firms in Brazil, Mexico, France, Poland and southern Africa for a total of $671 million. It also received permission to offer package-delivery services inside China, after that country changed its policy on domestic couriers.

To boost its e-commerce expertise, FedEx bought GENCO for $1.4 billion in January 2015. This company processes goods that buyers return for refunds. It handles more than 600 million returned items each year, including reselling them to discount retail chains. GENCO will add $1.6 billion to FedEx’s annual revenue.

In addition, FedEx paid $42 million for Bongo, which helps businesses with cross-border shipments. Bongo’s services include calculating duties, currency conversions and complying with export laws.

Last week, the company agreed to buy TNT Express NV, a Netherlands-based courier company that operates throughout Europe, for $4.8 billion. FedEx’s European operations mainly consist of air-delivery services, so it’s a good fit with TNT’s mainly ground-based operations.

FedEx’s strong balance sheet gives it plenty of room to keep investing in its businesses. As of February 28, 2015, its long-term debt was $7.2 billion, or a low 15% of its market cap. It also held cash of $3.5 billion, or $10.94 a share.

The company now expects to earn $8.80 to $8.95 a share for all of fiscal 2015. However, earnings could jump to $11.00 a share in 2016 as FedEx realizes the full benefits of its restructuring, and the stock trades at a more reasonable 15.0 times that forecast.

As well, the company’s new plan to charge customers based on package size instead of weight will further enhance its long-term earnings.

The company began paying a dividend in 2002 and has raised it nearly every year since. The current annual rate of $0.80 a share yields 0.5%. FedEx also plans to buy back 13.6 million of its common shares. That’s worth $2.2 billion, based on the current stock price. There are no time limits for these repurchases.

Recommendation in Wall Street Stock Forecaster: BUY.

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